Should Win/Will Win: Best Supporting Actress Edition

And the nominees are:

                                     

                                                                                                                                                     

• Penelope Cruz in Marion Cotillard Should Be Here in My Place
• Vera Farmiga in I Was a Robot Businesswoman
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in The Fact That There Are No Stills of Me From This Film And We've Had to Use One From Secretary Is Instructive
• Anna Kendrick in Really? 
• Mo'Nique in Ain't None a Y'all Bitchez Has A Chance in Hell

And the Oscar should go to...

SHOULD WIN:

Let's be real: Penelope Cruz's nomination is Nine's consolation prize. Next.

Maggie Gyllenhaal was merely fine in Crazy Heart. A commentator in Entertainment Weekly said she was horribly miscast, and I agree. She's just not particularly believable in this role, and an odd match for Jeff Bridges, and most unfortunate of all--you can see that she knows it. She has her moments, but for the most part it's merely adequate, and at times--ouch--kind of awkward. 

The furor over Anna Kendrick's turn in Up in the Air is utterly inexplicable to me. I don't know what everyone else saw, but I saw a decent actress who, down the road, has potential to become a truly terrific actress. But she's not there yet. That's not to say she didn't do a fine job--she has a lovely quality that reminds of a more intellectual Kristin Bell, and there is definitely something to be said for someone so young and so green holding her own against George Clooney. But the conventional wisdom on Kendrick--that she walks off with half the film's scenes--just simply isn't true. My only guess is that everyone expected her to not be up to the job, that she was simply some Twilight also-ran who ended up vastly exceeding everyone's expectations, and everyone is so worked up about it they nominated her for an Oscar. Or something. I mean, what is the big deal?

Finally, Vera Farmiga was terrific in Up in the Air--she radiated an exceptionally confident sexuality that was somehow both subtle and overt, which I really loved. But, frankly, in a more competitive year, would she even be nominated? And even if she were, compared to...

 

Mo'Nique? Bishplz. I still maintain that Mo'Nique's character in Precious: I Refuse to Type Out All that Based on the Novel Bullshit Every Time We Discuss This Movie Because Give Me a Break, Mary, is written as an implausibly evil monster (more on that in the Best Picture Should Win/Will Win) in a way that kind of backs the actress into a corner, but...WOW what Mo'Nique did in spite of all that. From her first frame to her last, through every snarl and bellow and scowl and curse, Mo'Nique does that actor's thing that can only be described with a well worn cliché: she disappears into Mary. Mo'Nique has spoken of her need, in her approach to the character, to not judge Mary, to bite the bullet and "go there". Boy did she ever. In her final scene, in which Mary pours out her heart in an attempt to redeem herself, we see just how deeply Mo'Nique has internalized Mary, and that she has done the impossible: she has found a way to love her. It's a feat of uncommon skill, and most of all, spectacular bravery. 

WILL WIN:

Duh. There is absolutely no way she is losing this. There is greater likelihood of you being struck by lightning while being hit by an asteroid while spontaneously combusting than there is of her losing this

Comments

[Jeroen]

Absolutely a no brainer, just like Waltz:
SHOULD WIN:
Mo'Nique
WILL WIN:
Mo'Nique
Love Penelope, love Vera, love Maggie, and I did like Anna a lot.
I almost threw up when Maggie first kissed Jeff...horribly miscast!